Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.499010 0.579333 0.665874 0.765739 0.877482 0.998345 1.138628
2025-04-06 0.374389 0.477601 0.597157 0.744721 0.920725 1.122661 1.370525
2025-04-13 0.280287 0.392886 0.532924 0.717205 0.950377 1.232501 1.596236
2025-04-20 0.221705 0.341035 0.500022 0.722231 1.019011 1.395548 1.902322
2025-04-27 0.171685 0.291052 0.461729 0.715046 1.071622 1.544885 2.207861
2025-05-04 0.136599 0.255274 0.437162 0.723068 1.145712 1.730217 2.578939
2025-05-11 0.107724 0.222700 0.411787 0.726341 1.213810 1.914686 2.966910
2025-05-18 0.078858 0.182779 0.367559 0.694278 1.226334 2.022559 3.259029
2025-05-25 0.055791 0.146587 0.322074 0.652599 1.218506 2.099639 3.513793
2025-06-01 0.042219 0.125061 0.298112 0.643215 1.260795 2.255977 3.898720
2025-06-08 0.031504 0.105973 0.274519 0.630449 1.295623 2.403559 4.281977
2025-06-15 0.025830 0.097132 0.269954 0.652724 1.393786 2.661347 4.856468
2025-06-22 0.018073 0.079413 0.242558 0.627314 1.406982 2.786354 5.239594
2025-06-29 0.013097 0.067212 0.224593 0.618154 1.449532 2.965593 5.726327
2025-07-06 0.009134 0.055734 0.204919 0.601477 1.475467 3.118384 6.180974
2025-07-13 0.006953 0.049523 0.197541 0.611591 1.556363 3.376407 6.833200
2025-07-20 0.005028 0.042717 0.186193 0.610012 1.612896 3.594497 7.430907
2025-07-27 0.003792 0.038135 0.180229 0.620952 1.697725 3.872671 8.153379
2025-08-03 0.002783 0.033642 0.172945 0.627047 1.772653 4.137666 8.868484
2025-08-10 0.001740 0.027104 0.155445 0.601145 1.771448 4.253239 9.316810
2025-08-17 0.000994 0.021041 0.136465 0.566073 1.743489 4.312169 9.662404
2025-08-24 0.000640 0.017773 0.127525 0.559307 1.783087 4.512103 10.286992
2025-08-31 0.000391 0.014812 0.118257 0.549196 1.812862 4.693397 10.885553